Solar Cycle 25 exceeded the original NOAA/NASA/ISES forecast on the way up, but on the way down it is now tracking well below the average solar-cycle curve dating back to 1750.
The media also doesn't seem to care about the exceptional, long-lasting cold gripping the Antarctic continent. Nor is it reporting on the record-cold run over the past six weeks (and counting) in the High Arctic (+80N).
During a time of supposed "catastrophic global heating," the Net Zero brigade has built a weather-dependent grid that fails when the weather gets hot.
By late July, at least 560 people had been arrested over suspected wildfire starts in France, Greece and Portugal alone—before Spain, Italy or the rest of Europe are counted.
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Very good reporting Cap. 2030 is still on track to be the major benchmark on where our planet’s climate is headed toward.
Cap:
Notes to go with the temperature diagram
In mid-2020, we discovered that the IPCC projected that the Earth’s temperature would reach 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in 2030. At the same time, experts on the Sun were saying that the Sun was entering a solar minimum, and that around 2030 the temperature would be close to that of preindustrial days.
This was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to plot the temperature record and determine who was correct. Thus, the attached figure.
The plot followed the Sun until the Hunga-Tonga underwater volcano erupted violently on January 15, 2022, sending 140 million tonnes of water into the atmosphere. This water reduced the flow of heat away from the Earth, allowing its temperature to increase. That is why the spike is to April 2024.
It is expected that as the water in the stratosphere dissipates, the temperature will continue to fall and might reach the estimated target noted by the two red stars.
For more details, see the following:
The Impact of the Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption on Earth’s Temperature.
Available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.29169/1927-5129.2025.21.14
The Sun versus CO2 as the cause of climate change projected to 2050.
Available at: https://setpublisher.com/pms/index.php/jbas/article/view/2350/2165
H. Douglas Lightfoot
May 25, 2026
file:///C:/Users/HDOUGL~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.jpg
The graph did not come through.
It is in the second reference.
H. Douglas Lightfoot
Coming out of the Hunga-Tonga warming burp, I expect the general planetary cooling trend to continue. At what rate is the question.